Everyone remains worried about the slow train wreck that is the European debt crisis. Despite this, the Australian economy is accelerating. The minerals investment boom and the associated activity are providing a floor under growth. Furthermore, households appear comfortable enough with their position to start spending again.

The high Australian dollar, weak demand in key international markets, and modest demand outside the mining industry means many other trade-exposed industries are in decline. Non-trade-exposed firms also remain on the sidelines due to low confidence, excess capacity, declining Government spending, and difficult funding conditions. Hence, investment and employment remains weak, which is a concern for medium-term growth.

An important silver lining is that inflation is falling and the RBA has lowered interest rates.

BIS Shrapnel is pleased to invite you to our 96th biannual conference on the Australian economy, building and property industries. Held biannually, since 1964, these half day briefings will provide a concise overview of these sectors to assist businesses with short to medium-term planning and budgeting through to mid/late 2013. Delegates receive a set of Conference papers, including the 18 month forecasts, along with a summary of the analysis and commentary.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BRIEFING

Minerals investment boom will underpin growth, despite concerns about European debt and world growth.

• Global economy: What next for Europe? Has the US avoided recession? Sustainability of Chinese growth? What is the role of currency imbalances?
• How much activity is the minerals investment boom really creating?
• When will non-mining-related businesses have the need and confidence to increase employment and investment?
• Are households spending again? For how long, and on what?
• What impact will the Government’s return to surplus have?
• What response from the RBA? Implications for lending rates?
• Will housing recover before interest rates rise again? What about rents?
• Casualties from strong minerals prices, investment and the $A.
• What should we make of carbon price, tax initiatives and regulation?
• Directions and drivers. Winners and Losers. Prospects by sector and state.

This session is accredited by the Financial Planning Association of Australia for 3 points of Continuing Professional Development Generic Knowledge – The Economic Environment - Accreditation #005188
 

Speakers: 

Dr Frank Gelber - Chief Economist

Richard Robinson - Senior Economist

 

LUNCHEON

Business in post-election Queensland: can it regain its mojo?

Queenslanders vote on March 24 in an election which every poll indicates will see the end of 20 years of Labor. Despite a resources boom, Queensland has lost the mojo that drove it through most of the century’s first decade. This presentation will look at what needs to change if the state is to get back on the front foot and examine whether the policies on offer by the current and alternative government can make a big enough difference.

Guest Speaker: David Fagan – Editor-in-Chief, NEWS QUEENSLAND

 

BUILDING INDUSTRY PROSPECTS BRIEFING

Residential commencements have declined in 2010/11 in response to rising interest rates and reduced first home buyer demand, while the economy has weakened as government stimulus funded construction projects are coming to a conclusion. Will residential construction decline further in 2011/12? When will a recovery in non-residential building take up the baton from the decline in stimulus spending?

• Has the decline in net overseas migration falls bottomed out? What are the direct and indirect impacts on building and property markets?
• Will first home buyer demand recover in 2011/12? Will state government stamp duty concessions to encourage dwelling construction be effective?
• Will the weakening residential property market translate to a slowdown in alterations and additions as owners become concerned about their equity?
• When will the effects of the resource investment boom have flow on effects to the economy? Can this underpin a recovery in commercial and industrial building, and which states might lead the way?
• Forecasts of building activity by sector and state to December 2012.
• An overview of property market prospects for the residential, commercial, retail and industrial sectors.

Speakers:  

Robert Mellor - Managing Director & Director Building 

Angie Zigomanis - Senior Manager, Building & Construction Forecasting

Dr Frank Gelber - Chief Economist